Heckling Your Friends About a Loss

My friends and I have a pretty intense rivalry over college sports teams. I went to Kentucky and all of them are Ohio State fans (there is one Maryland fan). Needless to say I despise Ohio State and Maryland and take joy in seeing them fail. When you are rooting for your friends’ team to fail, the question always arises how much you should gloat when they come up short (in Ohio State’s case that’s every time they play an SEC team). I have come up with some rough guidelines to follow (not just for college football).

- A Meaningless Regular Season Loss – It is ok to cheer vehemently against their team and rub it in their face when they lose. This loss isn’t critical to their season and it’s fun to heckle a person about games like this as they are unlikely to freak out.

- An Important Regular Season Game – I was watching the Giants-Titans game this weekend with Bobby a diehard Giants fan (He has NFL Sunday Ticket so I got to see the Browns game this way). I was pulling for the Titans but wasn’t openly cheering for them because it would highly piss him off. So instead I’d say things like, “Eli might want that one back” after he threw a left-handed duck into the end zone. He knew I didn’t want the Giants but I wasn’t antagonizing him too bad to the point that violence would erupt.

- A Playoff Game/Bowl Game/Game of Great Significance – If you are watching it with that person keep to yourself and speak when spoken to. You have to give them a grace period of close to a week before you can make fun of them. Personal example – My friend Kahnert (Maryland fan) texted me as UK was floundering in the Elite 8 game versus WVU this year to talk shit. That almost ended our friendship.

- The Most Crushing Loss Ever – Id call this the Brett Favre NFC title game last season. These are games you never bring up to rip on your friends about.

- LeBron James Spurns Their City on National TV – Buy your friend a bottle of liquor and drink it with him.

Holding Back on Vick

One thing we need to do here is all take a deep breath and take a step back from the Michael Vick bandwagon - that includes you Peter King. After reading King's column this week where he said Vick is the MVP of the league right now, it got a couple of discussions started between the Why So Serious writers.

Michael Vick is not the MVP. Not even close. His two wins came over the Jaguars and Lions - arguably two of the worst teams in all of football. In fact, the Jags are the worst team in football and got even worse by their recent signing of Trent Edwards.

Is he playing good football? Yes. But, who wouldn't play good football against these two slapdonks of teams. Everyone is simply blowing up how well he is playing because, a) his past and b) it's Philadelphia so Sal Pal and ESPN will sit there and have a story a day on them.

So, who is the MVP right now? In no particular order, a handful of people I select over Vick are Peyton Manning, Jay Cutler (gulp), Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady.

If the Cleveland Browns Were a Woman

Bobby’s post on the Giants as a chick got me thinking about if the Cleveland Browns were a woman. Instantly, Rosie O’Donnell popped into my head. But I decided to delve a little deeper after their frisky performance on the road against Baltimore. So last night as I was thinking about how shitty an actor Freddie Prinze Jr is (sidenote: I do this every night), I made the perfect analogy for the Browns:

Laney Boggs from She’s All That.

For those of you unfamilar with her this is her premise in the movie according to IMDB, "On the rebound Zach takes a bet from his best friend that he can take up with mousey bespectacled Laney Boggs and get her voted prom queen instead. Great friend, impossible task. Though once Laney scraps her glasses, does her hair, and gets into decent rags, Zach finds himself taking rather a lot of notice of her."

At first glance it is easy to think the Browns suck, just like everyone wrote off Laney as an ugly artsy loser. But, the Browns really aren’t as bad as their 0-3 record might indicate. They’ve been competitive in every game and I have walked away from each game thinking that they blew it, not that the other team beat us. The statistics show through three games the Browns have played their opponents virtually even in total yardage (965 to 943) with the Browns holding the advantage in yards per play (5.4 to 5.1).

Just like Laney became a hottie with the proper coaching on what to wear and who to hang out with, the Browns are just a tad off and would probably have a few wins with better coaching and to a lesser extent better QB * play.

* Seneca Wallace is one of those quarterbacks who are worse than his statistics indicate. I was secretly excited about him coming into this season because he had a career QB rating in the 80s, high completion percentage, and 2 to 1 TD/INT ratio. He has done exactly that for the Browns, but I have no confidence in him. His befuddling deep ball on 3rd and 2 in the 4th quarter that he threw 20 yards out of bounds with no pressure is exactly what I mean. *

The Browns-Ravens game was a perfect example of how the Browns coaching killed them. The 8 penalties the Browns committed, including the brutal neutral zone infraction on 3rd and 5, which sealed the game for the Ravens. Leaving Eric Wright on an island all day against Anquan Boldin when we have other better (ahem, Sheldon Brown) corner options was bullheaded. Lastly, the Browns wasted a precious 2nd half timeout to save a delay of game penalty when they were on their own 1 yard line. The Browns saved a precious 18 inches while we still had 3rd and 29.

I feel like if the Browns had the proper coaching (cough, cough, Mike Holmgren) they might be 2-1 maybe even 3-0 at this point in the season. Just like Laney learned what it took to make herself noticed by guys, the Browns could learn how to win if they had the proper guidance.

The New York Giants Are Now Like ....

That's right. The New York Giants have turned into this. Remember that girl from your high school that was incredibly hot with tons of potential. She was the homecoming/prom queen, captain of the cheerleading squad and going to a top school. Instead when you returned home for Christmas break, she packed on 40-50 bills, dropped out of school and was getting stuffed by the random old dude that used to come to the parties.

Well, that's how I feel about the Giants. When the Giants won the Super Bowl, they were at the top of the world. Returned everyone but DC Steve Spagnuolo, Michael Strahan, Derrick Ward, Gibril Wilson and Kawika Mitchell. The offense was blooming with Jacobs and whoever would be behind him in Bradshaw and Ward looking like the best 1-2 combo in football. Eli has his security blankets in Plax, Steve Smith, Kevin Boss and Toomer. Coughlin and Jerry Reese were credited for having the best minds in the game. The O-line was rated among the best. And there was the pass rush. Oh, the old pass rush.

Now, it's just a bunch of turds flopping around out there. Watching the game against the Titans this week was the complete opposite of old 'Giants football.' There was no discipline, there was no running game and more importantly there was no pass rush. Now, I'm not going to knock the defense for that loss, they did control Chris Johnson sans a late 4th quarter run. But, that team goes as the pass rush goes.

Much like the old smokeshow from high school, she had all the tools - skinny, solid ass, probably a nice rack, all the goodies. The Giants have all the tools up and down the roster to be a Super Bowl contending team - the playmakers, enough experience and mentality. But, like the hottie, they are screwed up on the inside - STD's and being pure bat-shit crazy for the hottie, and for the Giants there is internal fighting, questioning the front office and helmet tossing.

If they don't turn this around soon it'll only get worse and I don't want to find a picture worse than that above.

A New Addition to the Family

The two Why So Serious creators would like to welcome a new addition to the blog: Gil. That's right like Madonna, Seal and Cher he is going by the one name. Gil hails from Chicago and is known for willingly doing anything for Jon Scheyer as well letting everyone know he went to high school with him. Gil currently works in the sports world, as he is on an incredible record pace for most jobs held before the age of 25. Gil was part of the intramural dynasty at UK, winning two three v three's and a five v five. Gil is a die-hard Bears, Bulls and UK fan and will be providing weekly gambling advice as well as an array of posts of game recaps and the business side of sports.

Packers @ Bears Betting Preview

Packers (-3) @ Bears

As a die-hard Chicago Bears fan I hope that Jay Cutler tears up the Packers secondary and Peppers puts Aaron Rodgers in a body bag. Unfortunately, being a realist and avid sports gambler, I think just the opposite is going to happen and the Packers will easily cover. I have several cardinal rules for football betting, but these are the three most important:

1) Don’t ever put money against your favorite team (in this case the Bears)
2) Don’t bet against Peyton Manning in prime time, EVER
3) Always bet against Clemson to win a big game

Rule #1 prevents me from personally betting this game, but the one fact that might make me change my mind is they’re a home underdog on Monday Night Football, and home dogs on MNF are 2-0 against the spread (Chiefs, 49ers) this year.

Now here is some data I found at http://www.point-spreads.com/, which pretty much indicates that the Bears are going to get creamed tonight:

Packers are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games on grass.
Packers are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite.
Packers are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. win.
Packers are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS win.
Packers are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. NFC.
Packers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
Packers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Packers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 3.
Bears are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games as a home underdog of 0.5-3.0.
Bears are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games following a S.U. win.
Bears are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Bears are 7-18-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Bears are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall.Bears are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 vs. NFC.
Bears are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 vs. NFC North.

So of the 16 trends listed above, only one shows that the Bears will cover. As a betting man I would say that’s 15:1 the Packers will cover. On the flip side, you could justify betting the Bears under the “well Vegas knows this information too and they’ll adjust the line” strategy. Either way, I won’t be betting this game because I like to keep my sanity and even if they lose by 2 and cover, I’ll still be pissed. Regardless, I expect a cut from your winnings and can provide a mailing address for my check later.

Will Aaron Rodgers win muiltiple MVPs?

** We have asked commenters Dan Reagan and Randy Kern to play a PTI-style oddsmaker on 5 topics that we have chosen. This is the second part of the series. **

Dan Reagan - 15%

My initial reaction to this question was a resounding 0%. Only 7 players in the history of the NFL havewon multiple MVPs. It’s a bit presumptuous to predict this kind of feat for a player who has never won a playoff game, and plays behind a shaky offensive line that puts his life at risk every time he takes a sevenstep drop. However, his chances for the next few years are very good. MVPs only go to QBs or RBs,and there are only a few RBs who get enough carries to qualify these days. Peyton Manning has won 4 MVP’s, including the last two and is on the verge of giving the voters Michael Jordan syndrome, allowing a Karl Malone or Charles Barkley-type to steal an MVP this year or next. This puts Aaron Rodgers in a very small group of players who are on the inside track for at least one. Two’s still a lot to ask for though. Therefore, I say 15%.

Randy - 27%

In the 52 years that the AP MVP (which really stands for "most valuable quarterback or runningback but probably quarterback") has existed, seven different players have won it twice or more (this includes the three years that yielded two winners). So the award has been handed out 55 times, and 16 of those recipients were repeat winners. So if we assume Mr. Rodgers has a 100% chance of winning a single MVP, he has roughly a 29% chance of winning a second, atleast in terms of historical proportions, because 16 / 55 = .2909. Of course, no way could anyone assert that there is a 100% chance him winning the first one...

So how likely is it that he'll win one? I'm not sure how to mathematically justify this sub-number so lets look at some other great QBs. How many MVPs did Marino, Elway, Starr and Bradshaw win? One a piece. How about Montana, Warner, Favre, Young, Unitas? Two or more. Then there's a Kelly and Aikmen, goose eggs. And lets not forget or Gannons, McNairs, and Sipes who snuck one in there when nobody was looking ;)

Based on the above, I'll say Rodgers has a 90% chance of winning at least one MVP. He's the best young quarterback in the game hands down (you could make a case for Phillip Rivers and Ben Roethlisberger but Rodgers is two years younger), he posted the 4th highest QB rating in the league his second year of play. And seeing as he's 27 years old, has roughly 11 years of play in him, figuring most elite quarterbacks retire in their later 30s.

So why not 100%? I'm sure we were all ready to reserve Carson Palmer an MVP or two on layaway back in 2005 before he got hurt (yeah, that can happen to anybody). So back to the question at hand...

I'm just going with the historical proportions here. We've got my subjective albeit educated estimate of 90% that he'll win an MVP, so lets go ahead and multiply .9 by my 29.09 from before to determine how likely it is that he'll win another...okay!

26.181

Okay, so he has a 26ish% chance of winning two or more MVPS, is that all? Not quite. My formula is a little flawed because some players (Manning 4, Favre 3) won MORE than two MVPs. Thus the % chance got a little inflated. Sorry I'm not a math wizard that can formulate through this, but atleast I'm logical assesive enough to realize the design flaw. I dont think this is too drastic though, so I'm saying my number is still somewhere between 20-25%.

So enough with the number crunching... There's been a recent trend of players winning multiple MVPs. Prior to Montana winning the award back to back in 89 and 90, only Jim Brown and Jonny Unitas had racked up more than one MVP. Because of this, I feel I'm gonna up my prior percentage range a tad...

I'm gonna say that since he's plays in the present era, and his because he's biggest competition will be Phillip Rivers and an aging Peyton Manning, I'm giving Aaron Rodgers a solid 27% chance of winning 2 or more MVPs.

Will Kevin Durant Win More Than 5 Scoring Titles?

** We have asked commenters Dan Reagan and Randy Kern to play a PTI-style oddsmaker on 5 topics that we have chosen. This is the first part of the series. **

Randy - 60%

Michael Jordan won 10 scoring titles. I don't anticipate Kevin Durant will be as good an all around player as Michael Jordan, but in the avenue of pure "scoring", I don't see how he won't come close. Durants primary competition for the scoring title; Lebron James and Dwyane Wade, will be less likely to win scoring titles on the Miami Heat seeing as they have themselves and Bosh to distribute to. Durant is listed at 6'9, the same height as Lebron James, though I've heard accusations that he's actually taller than the 6'10 Amare Stoudemire, based on when they stand side by side. But its not his post game that racks in the points, its his jump shot. I'm not saying its as good as Kobes, but he's only 21 years old. And its not like Durant is as one dimmensional as say Reggie Miller, he can create off the dribble, and is nearly invincible off of screens. I don't adhere to the assumption that all NBA players gradually improve and peak in their late 20's, but the fact of the matter is Durant can and will get better. Thats pretty scary.

So why am I not giving him a higher percent chance of winning 5+ more scoring titles? I mentioned his "invincibility" off of screens. This is not only a strength but a weakness in that he is a little too reliant on it. Sure, he'll develop his game to where he won't rely on that so heavily, but developing his game doesn't mean "becoming a better scorer". If anything, as Durant matures he will be scoring LESS in that the passing, rebounding, defending, etc. aspects of his game will blossom. The Thunder aren't gonna win titles with because Durant drops 40 every night. Durant himself is indifferent towards winning scoring titles (I recall him being overly humble and stating that Lebron, Wade, Carmelo, Kobe were all better at scoring than he is).

With all that being said, I give Kevin Durant a 60% chance of winning 5 more scoring titles.

Dan Reagan - 90%

Interesting how Kevin Durant signing an extension with Oklahoma City to take 25 shots a night was looked at as unselfish and Lebron going to Miami in order to give up shots and win multiple titles was selfish. Not that I mind. Lebron’s a douche and I love me some Durantula. But KD really has set himself up to score A LOT of points by staying in OKC. Andre Igudola wasn’t completely crazy when he said last week that Durant will finish as the NBA’s all time leading scorer. With one scoring title already under his belt, with 2 of his competitors competing for shots in Miami, and with his career just beginning, I’ll give this one a 90%. It would be quite a feat considering he was only the second best player on his high school team.

With the Number 1 Pick ...

Thought of this discussion today instead of doing actual work. If every NFL player was eligible for a draft of a new organization who do you take - essentialy who are you building your franchise around? My answer:

Aaron Rodgers.

Why Rodgers instead of someone like Brees, Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson or Peyton Manning? The big thing for me is the time you can have with Rodgers as the face of your franchise. Peyton Manning, while much better than Rodgers will play for a few more years. Rodgers is 26 years old and only in his third year as a starting quarterback. He has yet to experience an NFL injury, while still being an underrated mobile quarterback.

His stats are insane as heading into this year he had a total 59 touchdowns compared to 21 interceptions with over 8,800 yards to his name. He's also ran for 9 touchdowns and 570 yards.

I also look at building around a quarterback as opposed to a running back due to shelf life. While I firmly believe Johnson and Peterson are exceptions to the short life of a running back inthe NFL, I see Rodgers playing until he's 38 years old. That's another 12 years with a solid quarterback (hello, Brett Favre's footsteps).

That's who I'm building around. What about you?

THE MOST ANNOYING THING IN THE NFL

Did you know that Miller Lite has a new vortex bottle?? Well, you certainly will after you watch an NFL game. After another NFL weekend of being inundated with commercial breaks I had to rant about one of the MOST ANNYOING things in sports.

A team goes down and scores and they cut to commercial break between the score and ensuing kickoff. They come back to action and the kickoff takes place. As soon as the return ends they go to another commercial break! We get 5 minutes of commercials surrounding 6 seconds of action. I understand that these sponsors are paying good money to get their annoying ads played repeatedly during an NFL game. But, as a fan getting a few seconds of action surrounded by 5 minutes of Coors, Verizon and NCIS promos is a donkey punch to our enjoyment of the game.

NCAA vs NFL Who You Got?

I have been in this debate numerous times lately, so I figured I'd bring it to the blog to see what people thought. What do you enjoy more: NCAA Football vs the NFL. My answer: NFL. Hands down.

My biggest problem with the NCAA is there's no true 'champion.' Every year from Day 1 you hear about which team will get screwed out of a chance to play for the National Championship. This year, it will be Boise State, last year it was TCU and so on. Until the NCAA instutes a playoff, at least 8 teams, I will always firmly believe there is never a true champion.

On top of that you have about 40 teams/schools who can claim to be a champion of something - do you really feel proud walking around saying your team won the Papa John's Bowl? Compared to the NFL where the only champions you can say are division -if you're really proud of that you belong in the Cincinnati Bengals fanship - conference and then the Super Bowl. That's it, there's no random December 18th game to decide the champion of some game.

Another advantage I feel the NFL has is NCAA 'contenders' will pad their non-conference schedule and essentially waltz their way to their respective conference schedule in order to maintain that BCS Bowl berth. While teams like the Lions, Browns, Rams and Bills suck terrible wind, they always have a fighting chance in the game they are playing. Ohio U will lose to Ohio State 100 out of 100 times - unless the two mascots go at it in the end zone, then my money is on Rufus.

And just like that game, the NFL trumps the NCAA in my book 100 out of 100 times.

So, who do you got? The NCAA or NFL?

If the Cleveland Browns Disappeared

I had a question posed to me recently, if the Cleveland Browns just disappeared* off the face of the earth (not to Baltimore), what NFL team would I root for? So with starting this blog back up, I figured I would share my answer and reasoning to the vast amount of readers.

* Actually ceased to exist, not just the oblivion of having every game be a 1pm game with a former mediocre AFC West quarterback doing the games.

My Pick: The Eagles

Why the Eagles? Here are four reasons.

1. The Fans - Eagles fans have the reputation of being crude and hostile. I really like that. I want opposing fans to be scared to come to my home stadium. At the very least a Giants fan should get a beer spilled on him. If hes one of those incredibly douchey ones that still wears a Shockey jersey, he should definitely get an ass beating in the upper deck. Also, the "Fly Eagles Fly" song is kind of catchy and I would definitely belt it out drunkenly.

2. Suffering - I can empathize with a fanbase that hasn't won anything since Norm Van Brocklin was quarterbacking for them. I couldn't be a frontrunner and jump on a team like the Saints or Patriots. I need a fanbase that feels suffering.

3. Andy Reid is Fat - I like having a coach that has a trait that you can easily rip on. When Romeo Crennel was the head coach of the Browns everything that went wrong we blamed on him being a barge. So when Andy Reid mismanages the game clock for like 430th time you have something easy to bitch about, "That fatass was too busy thinking about the postgame spread to realize the playclock was at zero." See, I told you I like suffering and overweight coaches.

4. Madden - Over the years I have played with the Eagles because I like playing with a mobile QB, Donovan McNabb. In the 2011 game, I have liked the Eagles because of a mobile QB (Vick), good receiving RB (McCoy) and fast WR (Jackson and Maclin).

If your favorite team spontaneously combusted and you had to choose a new team, who would it be?

NFL Trade Rumors: Why Brandon Jacobs is Untradable and Where Vincent Jackson Ends Up

What's a better way to kick off a year and a half hiatus than to write about a Giant. Now, unlike the norm I won't be defending anything but rather explaining why it will be near impossible for the Giants to trade that monster of a locker room cancer known as Brandon Jacobs. First of all, not many teams need running back help - it's a very short list that includes Green Bay, Oakland (solely because Al Davis is senile), Seattle (because Pete Carroll never does anything normally) and maybe a team like Tampa Bay.

The next thing is Jacobs essentially retired after the Giants won the Super Bowl against the Pats. He was signed to a large contract with big guaranteed money ($15 million over the first two years). No one is going to pay a headcase that amount.

Finally, he flat out sucks now. He's 28 years old and he's shown his shelf life as a valuable NFL running back. He's no longer doing what he did his first 4 years in the league where he'd run straight ahead and over people. Instead he's dancing, i.e. the play against the Colts on Sunday night that led to the helmet throw. Last season he average a putrid 3.7 yards per carry, his worst season since his rookie campaign when he averaged 2.6 off of 38 attempts. He's also proven to be a subpar short yardage back as it's usually Bradshaw in the backfield during those situations.

The other big trade rumor floating around again is Vincent Jackson, who if he gets traded by tomorrow will only be suspended for two more games. Does this happen? I would think Minnesota makes the hardest push for him in order to keep Brett Favre from crying and an effort to help AP. The only other possible destination for him could be Seattle.

Thoughts? It's good to be back and God hates Cleveland.

Well, Hello Again!

After a year and a half hiatus, Bobby and I decided to restart our blog. Due to sheer boredom in our lives and it being football season, we thought this would be a great time to start writing again. Throughout the fall, we plan on having several weekly regular posts. We look to have weekly features previewing the weekend in college football and NFL, a recap of the football weekend early in the week, and postings during the week debating topics or giving our opinion on issues at the time. We will also give our overwhelmingly amateur gambling and fantasy advice. And as always, Eli Manning sucks.