Week 4 NFL Picks

Officially 0-1 against the spread on my blog picks (but 23-20 on yahoo).

Unforuntately I was wrong on Monday Night spreadwise, but the Bears are the only undefeated NFC team now so suck on it.

To the left is a picture of the now infamous Chad Johnson cereal/sex hotline. Only thing better than watching a stupid self promotion blow up in CJ's face are my week 4 picks:

@ATL (-7) vs. SF: “Falcons are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0”
I thought SF was going to run through the NFC west but so far I can’t think of a more disappointing team. Atlanta is solid, at home and should have Turner back at full strength. I thought last week SF would figure it out and now they look more lost than ever. ATL

NYJ(-5.5) @ Buffalo: “Road team is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings”
CJ Spiller is a pimp, as I predicted he would be, but the rest of Buffalo not so pimpin’. Jets are nasty (even without Revis), and the Bills just released their week 1 QB. I figured this spread would be much higher. Jets

Cinci(-3)@ Cleveland: “Browns are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog”
Cleveland is awful and Cincinnati has not had a solid all around game yet. I think the Browns keep it close but lose, and the worst fans in sports celebrate with the stupid cheer they copied from the Saints. Cleveland

@GB(-14.5) vs. Detroit: “Lions are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 meetings in Green Bay”
I always like Detroit, I keep telling myself Detroit is not that bad. Unfortunately they are and Stafford is out. GB at home, pissed about Monday night, pretty sure they aren’t going to get 18 penalties again. 14.5 is a lot, but Detroit is really bad. GB

@Tenn(-6.5) vs. Denver “Titans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.”
Denver threw for 7 million yards last week. I think they find a way into the end zone this weekend and keep it within a touchdown. There is also the possibility Chris Johnson runs wild, but mostly Vince will find a way to throw INTs. I like Denver with the points. Denver

Seattle (-1) @ St. Louis “Favorite is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 meetings.”
St. Louis looked solid last week and Sam Bradford is for real, but Seattle looks like the NFC West favorite at this point. Seattle

@NO (-14.5) vs. Carolina “Panthers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings, 9-0 in New Orleans”
Despite Carolina being awful, I think they actually stick to the run, milk the clock, and give Clausen some more freedom. 14.5 points is a lot too, even in a mismatch. I like Carolina with the points. Carolina

@Pitt (-1.5) vs. Baltimore: “Ravens are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 meetings”
Love these games. Someone is going to die/get horrifically injured. Ray Lewis, Troy Polamalu, if you don’t like this matchup you don’t like football. Pittsburgh looks great on Defense, Baltimore has some holes in the secondary but their offense may have gotten it going last week. Pittsburgh

HOU (-3) @ Oakland: “Oakland Raiders are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win.”
I watched Oakland last week and they weren’t that bad. The Asomugha-Andre Johnson matchup will be cool to watch. Houston didn’t show up last week but I think they do this time. Htown

Indy (-7) @ Jax: “Colts are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Jacksonville.”
Remember when this was a rivalry game? Not anymore. Indy

@Philly (-6) vs. Washington: “Underdog is 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings”
The most interesting game this weekend in my opinion, plotline-wise. Like Dan I’m not drinking the Vick kool-aid yet, plus I like McNabb in these situations. The Fighting McNabbs of DC

@SD (-8) vs. Arizona : “Chargers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss”
The Cardinals are terrible, no running game and Derek Anderson starting. Week 4 is usually when the Chargers figure things out. I like SD at home. SD

@NYG (-4) vs. Chi-town: “Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall, Road team is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings”
Chicago and the points? I forgot how ridiculous Julius Peppers is, he played a ridiculous game on Monday and I credit him for the victory. I think a repeat performance is in the air and the Bears are confident. Has New York done anything to make you think otherwise? Chicago

NE (-1) @ Miami: “Dolphins are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog.”
So another home underdog won last night on Monday Night. I’m riding the wave this time, and the Dolphins were impressive in their loss last week. Miami

Heckling Your Friends About a Loss

My friends and I have a pretty intense rivalry over college sports teams. I went to Kentucky and all of them are Ohio State fans (there is one Maryland fan). Needless to say I despise Ohio State and Maryland and take joy in seeing them fail. When you are rooting for your friends’ team to fail, the question always arises how much you should gloat when they come up short (in Ohio State’s case that’s every time they play an SEC team). I have come up with some rough guidelines to follow (not just for college football).

- A Meaningless Regular Season Loss – It is ok to cheer vehemently against their team and rub it in their face when they lose. This loss isn’t critical to their season and it’s fun to heckle a person about games like this as they are unlikely to freak out.

- An Important Regular Season Game – I was watching the Giants-Titans game this weekend with Bobby a diehard Giants fan (He has NFL Sunday Ticket so I got to see the Browns game this way). I was pulling for the Titans but wasn’t openly cheering for them because it would highly piss him off. So instead I’d say things like, “Eli might want that one back” after he threw a left-handed duck into the end zone. He knew I didn’t want the Giants but I wasn’t antagonizing him too bad to the point that violence would erupt.

- A Playoff Game/Bowl Game/Game of Great Significance – If you are watching it with that person keep to yourself and speak when spoken to. You have to give them a grace period of close to a week before you can make fun of them. Personal example – My friend Kahnert (Maryland fan) texted me as UK was floundering in the Elite 8 game versus WVU this year to talk shit. That almost ended our friendship.

- The Most Crushing Loss Ever – Id call this the Brett Favre NFC title game last season. These are games you never bring up to rip on your friends about.

- LeBron James Spurns Their City on National TV – Buy your friend a bottle of liquor and drink it with him.

Holding Back on Vick

One thing we need to do here is all take a deep breath and take a step back from the Michael Vick bandwagon - that includes you Peter King. After reading King's column this week where he said Vick is the MVP of the league right now, it got a couple of discussions started between the Why So Serious writers.

Michael Vick is not the MVP. Not even close. His two wins came over the Jaguars and Lions - arguably two of the worst teams in all of football. In fact, the Jags are the worst team in football and got even worse by their recent signing of Trent Edwards.

Is he playing good football? Yes. But, who wouldn't play good football against these two slapdonks of teams. Everyone is simply blowing up how well he is playing because, a) his past and b) it's Philadelphia so Sal Pal and ESPN will sit there and have a story a day on them.

So, who is the MVP right now? In no particular order, a handful of people I select over Vick are Peyton Manning, Jay Cutler (gulp), Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady.

If the Cleveland Browns Were a Woman

Bobby’s post on the Giants as a chick got me thinking about if the Cleveland Browns were a woman. Instantly, Rosie O’Donnell popped into my head. But I decided to delve a little deeper after their frisky performance on the road against Baltimore. So last night as I was thinking about how shitty an actor Freddie Prinze Jr is (sidenote: I do this every night), I made the perfect analogy for the Browns:

Laney Boggs from She’s All That.

For those of you unfamilar with her this is her premise in the movie according to IMDB, "On the rebound Zach takes a bet from his best friend that he can take up with mousey bespectacled Laney Boggs and get her voted prom queen instead. Great friend, impossible task. Though once Laney scraps her glasses, does her hair, and gets into decent rags, Zach finds himself taking rather a lot of notice of her."

At first glance it is easy to think the Browns suck, just like everyone wrote off Laney as an ugly artsy loser. But, the Browns really aren’t as bad as their 0-3 record might indicate. They’ve been competitive in every game and I have walked away from each game thinking that they blew it, not that the other team beat us. The statistics show through three games the Browns have played their opponents virtually even in total yardage (965 to 943) with the Browns holding the advantage in yards per play (5.4 to 5.1).

Just like Laney became a hottie with the proper coaching on what to wear and who to hang out with, the Browns are just a tad off and would probably have a few wins with better coaching and to a lesser extent better QB * play.

* Seneca Wallace is one of those quarterbacks who are worse than his statistics indicate. I was secretly excited about him coming into this season because he had a career QB rating in the 80s, high completion percentage, and 2 to 1 TD/INT ratio. He has done exactly that for the Browns, but I have no confidence in him. His befuddling deep ball on 3rd and 2 in the 4th quarter that he threw 20 yards out of bounds with no pressure is exactly what I mean. *

The Browns-Ravens game was a perfect example of how the Browns coaching killed them. The 8 penalties the Browns committed, including the brutal neutral zone infraction on 3rd and 5, which sealed the game for the Ravens. Leaving Eric Wright on an island all day against Anquan Boldin when we have other better (ahem, Sheldon Brown) corner options was bullheaded. Lastly, the Browns wasted a precious 2nd half timeout to save a delay of game penalty when they were on their own 1 yard line. The Browns saved a precious 18 inches while we still had 3rd and 29.

I feel like if the Browns had the proper coaching (cough, cough, Mike Holmgren) they might be 2-1 maybe even 3-0 at this point in the season. Just like Laney learned what it took to make herself noticed by guys, the Browns could learn how to win if they had the proper guidance.

The New York Giants Are Now Like ....

That's right. The New York Giants have turned into this. Remember that girl from your high school that was incredibly hot with tons of potential. She was the homecoming/prom queen, captain of the cheerleading squad and going to a top school. Instead when you returned home for Christmas break, she packed on 40-50 bills, dropped out of school and was getting stuffed by the random old dude that used to come to the parties.

Well, that's how I feel about the Giants. When the Giants won the Super Bowl, they were at the top of the world. Returned everyone but DC Steve Spagnuolo, Michael Strahan, Derrick Ward, Gibril Wilson and Kawika Mitchell. The offense was blooming with Jacobs and whoever would be behind him in Bradshaw and Ward looking like the best 1-2 combo in football. Eli has his security blankets in Plax, Steve Smith, Kevin Boss and Toomer. Coughlin and Jerry Reese were credited for having the best minds in the game. The O-line was rated among the best. And there was the pass rush. Oh, the old pass rush.

Now, it's just a bunch of turds flopping around out there. Watching the game against the Titans this week was the complete opposite of old 'Giants football.' There was no discipline, there was no running game and more importantly there was no pass rush. Now, I'm not going to knock the defense for that loss, they did control Chris Johnson sans a late 4th quarter run. But, that team goes as the pass rush goes.

Much like the old smokeshow from high school, she had all the tools - skinny, solid ass, probably a nice rack, all the goodies. The Giants have all the tools up and down the roster to be a Super Bowl contending team - the playmakers, enough experience and mentality. But, like the hottie, they are screwed up on the inside - STD's and being pure bat-shit crazy for the hottie, and for the Giants there is internal fighting, questioning the front office and helmet tossing.

If they don't turn this around soon it'll only get worse and I don't want to find a picture worse than that above.

A New Addition to the Family

The two Why So Serious creators would like to welcome a new addition to the blog: Gil. That's right like Madonna, Seal and Cher he is going by the one name. Gil hails from Chicago and is known for willingly doing anything for Jon Scheyer as well letting everyone know he went to high school with him. Gil currently works in the sports world, as he is on an incredible record pace for most jobs held before the age of 25. Gil was part of the intramural dynasty at UK, winning two three v three's and a five v five. Gil is a die-hard Bears, Bulls and UK fan and will be providing weekly gambling advice as well as an array of posts of game recaps and the business side of sports.

Packers @ Bears Betting Preview

Packers (-3) @ Bears

As a die-hard Chicago Bears fan I hope that Jay Cutler tears up the Packers secondary and Peppers puts Aaron Rodgers in a body bag. Unfortunately, being a realist and avid sports gambler, I think just the opposite is going to happen and the Packers will easily cover. I have several cardinal rules for football betting, but these are the three most important:

1) Don’t ever put money against your favorite team (in this case the Bears)
2) Don’t bet against Peyton Manning in prime time, EVER
3) Always bet against Clemson to win a big game

Rule #1 prevents me from personally betting this game, but the one fact that might make me change my mind is they’re a home underdog on Monday Night Football, and home dogs on MNF are 2-0 against the spread (Chiefs, 49ers) this year.

Now here is some data I found at http://www.point-spreads.com/, which pretty much indicates that the Bears are going to get creamed tonight:

Packers are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games on grass.
Packers are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite.
Packers are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. win.
Packers are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS win.
Packers are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. NFC.
Packers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
Packers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Packers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 3.
Bears are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games as a home underdog of 0.5-3.0.
Bears are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games following a S.U. win.
Bears are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Bears are 7-18-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Bears are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall.Bears are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 vs. NFC.
Bears are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 vs. NFC North.

So of the 16 trends listed above, only one shows that the Bears will cover. As a betting man I would say that’s 15:1 the Packers will cover. On the flip side, you could justify betting the Bears under the “well Vegas knows this information too and they’ll adjust the line” strategy. Either way, I won’t be betting this game because I like to keep my sanity and even if they lose by 2 and cover, I’ll still be pissed. Regardless, I expect a cut from your winnings and can provide a mailing address for my check later.