Friday, October 1, 2010

Week 4 NFL Picks


Officially 0-1 against the spread on my blog picks (but 23-20 on yahoo).

Unforuntately I was wrong on Monday Night spreadwise, but the Bears are the only undefeated NFC team now so suck on it.
To the left is a picture of the now infamous Chad Johnson cereal/sex hotline. Only thing better than watching a stupid self promotion blow up in CJ's face are my week 4 picks:

@ATL (-7) vs. SF: “Falcons are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0”
I thought SF was going to run through the NFC west but so far I can’t think of a more disappointing team. Atlanta is solid, at home and should have Turner back at full strength. I thought last week SF would figure it out and now they look more lost than ever. ATL

NYJ(-5.5) @ Buffalo: “Road team is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings”
CJ Spiller is a pimp, as I predicted he would be, but the rest of Buffalo not so pimpin’. Jets are nasty (even without Revis), and the Bills just released their week 1 QB. I figured this spread would be much higher. Jets

Cinci(-3)@ Cleveland: “Browns are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog”
Cleveland is awful and Cincinnati has not had a solid all around game yet. I think the Browns keep it close but lose, and the worst fans in sports celebrate with the stupid cheer they copied from the Saints. Cleveland

@GB(-14.5) vs. Detroit: “Lions are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 meetings in Green Bay”
I always like Detroit, I keep telling myself Detroit is not that bad. Unfortunately they are and Stafford is out. GB at home, pissed about Monday night, pretty sure they aren’t going to get 18 penalties again. 14.5 is a lot, but Detroit is really bad. GB

@Tenn(-6.5) vs. Denver “Titans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.”
Denver threw for 7 million yards last week. I think they find a way into the end zone this weekend and keep it within a touchdown. There is also the possibility Chris Johnson runs wild, but mostly Vince will find a way to throw INTs. I like Denver with the points. Denver

Seattle (-1) @ St. Louis “Favorite is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 meetings.”
St. Louis looked solid last week and Sam Bradford is for real, but Seattle looks like the NFC West favorite at this point. Seattle

@NO (-14.5) vs. Carolina “Panthers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings, 9-0 in New Orleans”
Despite Carolina being awful, I think they actually stick to the run, milk the clock, and give Clausen some more freedom. 14.5 points is a lot too, even in a mismatch. I like Carolina with the points. Carolina

@Pitt (-1.5) vs. Baltimore: “Ravens are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 meetings”
Love these games. Someone is going to die/get horrifically injured. Ray Lewis, Troy Polamalu, if you don’t like this matchup you don’t like football. Pittsburgh looks great on Defense, Baltimore has some holes in the secondary but their offense may have gotten it going last week. Pittsburgh

HOU (-3) @ Oakland: “Oakland Raiders are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win.”
I watched Oakland last week and they weren’t that bad. The Asomugha-Andre Johnson matchup will be cool to watch. Houston didn’t show up last week but I think they do this time. Htown

Indy (-7) @ Jax: “Colts are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Jacksonville.”
Remember when this was a rivalry game? Not anymore. Indy

@Philly (-6) vs. Washington: “Underdog is 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings”
The most interesting game this weekend in my opinion, plotline-wise. Like Dan I’m not drinking the Vick kool-aid yet, plus I like McNabb in these situations. The Fighting McNabbs of DC

@SD (-8) vs. Arizona : “Chargers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss”
The Cardinals are terrible, no running game and Derek Anderson starting. Week 4 is usually when the Chargers figure things out. I like SD at home. SD

@NYG (-4) vs. Chi-town: “Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall, Road team is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings”
Chicago and the points? I forgot how ridiculous Julius Peppers is, he played a ridiculous game on Monday and I credit him for the victory. I think a repeat performance is in the air and the Bears are confident. Has New York done anything to make you think otherwise? Chicago

NE (-1) @ Miami: “Dolphins are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog.”
So another home underdog won last night on Monday Night. I’m riding the wave this time, and the Dolphins were impressive in their loss last week. Miami

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