Packers (-3) @ Bears
As a die-hard Chicago Bears fan I hope that Jay Cutler tears up the Packers secondary and Peppers puts Aaron Rodgers in a body bag. Unfortunately, being a realist and avid sports gambler, I think just the opposite is going to happen and the Packers will easily cover. I have several cardinal rules for football betting, but these are the three most important:
1) Don’t ever put money against your favorite team (in this case the Bears)
2) Don’t bet against Peyton Manning in prime time, EVER
3) Always bet against Clemson to win a big game
Rule #1 prevents me from personally betting this game, but the one fact that might make me change my mind is they’re a home underdog on Monday Night Football, and home dogs on MNF are 2-0 against the spread (Chiefs, 49ers) this year.
Now here is some data I found at http://www.point-spreads.com/, which pretty much indicates that the Bears are going to get creamed tonight:
Packers are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games on grass.
Packers are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite.
Packers are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. win.
Packers are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS win.
Packers are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. NFC.
Packers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
Packers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Packers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 3.
Bears are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games as a home underdog of 0.5-3.0.
Bears are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games following a S.U. win.
Bears are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Bears are 7-18-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Bears are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall.Bears are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 vs. NFC.
Bears are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 vs. NFC North.
So of the 16 trends listed above, only one shows that the Bears will cover. As a betting man I would say that’s 15:1 the Packers will cover. On the flip side, you could justify betting the Bears under the “well Vegas knows this information too and they’ll adjust the line” strategy. Either way, I won’t be betting this game because I like to keep my sanity and even if they lose by 2 and cover, I’ll still be pissed. Regardless, I expect a cut from your winnings and can provide a mailing address for my check later.
As a die-hard Chicago Bears fan I hope that Jay Cutler tears up the Packers secondary and Peppers puts Aaron Rodgers in a body bag. Unfortunately, being a realist and avid sports gambler, I think just the opposite is going to happen and the Packers will easily cover. I have several cardinal rules for football betting, but these are the three most important:
1) Don’t ever put money against your favorite team (in this case the Bears)
2) Don’t bet against Peyton Manning in prime time, EVER
3) Always bet against Clemson to win a big game
Rule #1 prevents me from personally betting this game, but the one fact that might make me change my mind is they’re a home underdog on Monday Night Football, and home dogs on MNF are 2-0 against the spread (Chiefs, 49ers) this year.
Now here is some data I found at http://www.point-spreads.com/, which pretty much indicates that the Bears are going to get creamed tonight:
Packers are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games on grass.
Packers are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite.
Packers are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. win.
Packers are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS win.
Packers are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. NFC.
Packers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
Packers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Packers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 3.
Bears are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games as a home underdog of 0.5-3.0.
Bears are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games following a S.U. win.
Bears are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Bears are 7-18-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Bears are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall.Bears are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 vs. NFC.
Bears are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 vs. NFC North.
So of the 16 trends listed above, only one shows that the Bears will cover. As a betting man I would say that’s 15:1 the Packers will cover. On the flip side, you could justify betting the Bears under the “well Vegas knows this information too and they’ll adjust the line” strategy. Either way, I won’t be betting this game because I like to keep my sanity and even if they lose by 2 and cover, I’ll still be pissed. Regardless, I expect a cut from your winnings and can provide a mailing address for my check later.
1 comment:
I'm not a high roller but I'll say Bears win 23-20.
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