Will Aaron Rodgers win muiltiple MVPs?

** We have asked commenters Dan Reagan and Randy Kern to play a PTI-style oddsmaker on 5 topics that we have chosen. This is the second part of the series. **

Dan Reagan - 15%

My initial reaction to this question was a resounding 0%. Only 7 players in the history of the NFL havewon multiple MVPs. It’s a bit presumptuous to predict this kind of feat for a player who has never won a playoff game, and plays behind a shaky offensive line that puts his life at risk every time he takes a sevenstep drop. However, his chances for the next few years are very good. MVPs only go to QBs or RBs,and there are only a few RBs who get enough carries to qualify these days. Peyton Manning has won 4 MVP’s, including the last two and is on the verge of giving the voters Michael Jordan syndrome, allowing a Karl Malone or Charles Barkley-type to steal an MVP this year or next. This puts Aaron Rodgers in a very small group of players who are on the inside track for at least one. Two’s still a lot to ask for though. Therefore, I say 15%.

Randy - 27%

In the 52 years that the AP MVP (which really stands for "most valuable quarterback or runningback but probably quarterback") has existed, seven different players have won it twice or more (this includes the three years that yielded two winners). So the award has been handed out 55 times, and 16 of those recipients were repeat winners. So if we assume Mr. Rodgers has a 100% chance of winning a single MVP, he has roughly a 29% chance of winning a second, atleast in terms of historical proportions, because 16 / 55 = .2909. Of course, no way could anyone assert that there is a 100% chance him winning the first one...

So how likely is it that he'll win one? I'm not sure how to mathematically justify this sub-number so lets look at some other great QBs. How many MVPs did Marino, Elway, Starr and Bradshaw win? One a piece. How about Montana, Warner, Favre, Young, Unitas? Two or more. Then there's a Kelly and Aikmen, goose eggs. And lets not forget or Gannons, McNairs, and Sipes who snuck one in there when nobody was looking ;)

Based on the above, I'll say Rodgers has a 90% chance of winning at least one MVP. He's the best young quarterback in the game hands down (you could make a case for Phillip Rivers and Ben Roethlisberger but Rodgers is two years younger), he posted the 4th highest QB rating in the league his second year of play. And seeing as he's 27 years old, has roughly 11 years of play in him, figuring most elite quarterbacks retire in their later 30s.

So why not 100%? I'm sure we were all ready to reserve Carson Palmer an MVP or two on layaway back in 2005 before he got hurt (yeah, that can happen to anybody). So back to the question at hand...

I'm just going with the historical proportions here. We've got my subjective albeit educated estimate of 90% that he'll win an MVP, so lets go ahead and multiply .9 by my 29.09 from before to determine how likely it is that he'll win another...okay!

26.181

Okay, so he has a 26ish% chance of winning two or more MVPS, is that all? Not quite. My formula is a little flawed because some players (Manning 4, Favre 3) won MORE than two MVPs. Thus the % chance got a little inflated. Sorry I'm not a math wizard that can formulate through this, but atleast I'm logical assesive enough to realize the design flaw. I dont think this is too drastic though, so I'm saying my number is still somewhere between 20-25%.

So enough with the number crunching... There's been a recent trend of players winning multiple MVPs. Prior to Montana winning the award back to back in 89 and 90, only Jim Brown and Jonny Unitas had racked up more than one MVP. Because of this, I feel I'm gonna up my prior percentage range a tad...

I'm gonna say that since he's plays in the present era, and his because he's biggest competition will be Phillip Rivers and an aging Peyton Manning, I'm giving Aaron Rodgers a solid 27% chance of winning 2 or more MVPs.